Has bitcoin halving lost its mojo? The crypto sees its worst ever post-halving performance.

It’s been a year since bitcoin’s last halving, a widely anticipated event that may no longer boost the price of the cryptocurrency.

Halving is a mechanism written into the bitcoin blockchain’s algorithm in order to control the supply of the coin, which has a cap of 21 million. At halvings, the reward for bitcoin mining is cut in half, meaning miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions.

The event has historically been viewed as bullish for bitcoin as it increased scarcity and fueled investors’ optimism. Bitcoin’s price soared in the months after its first three halvings.

Read: Below is all the information you need regarding the Bitcoin halving.

Nevertheless, this year Bitcoin experienced its poorest historical performance following a halving event, causing certain investors to question whether the usual price increase associated with halvings still holds true. has fizzled , with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs last year potentially having transformed the market structure .

Since bitcoin’s last halving on April 19, 2024, the crypto has gained 43.4%, which was lackluster compared with previous cycles. Bitcoin surged 7,000% in the 12 months following the 2012 halving and rose 291% one year after the 2016 halving. It gained 541% in the year after the 2020 halving, according to data from crypto-research firm Kaiko.

So far, Bitcoin, established in 2009, has undergone four halving events; therefore, past records might not provide an accurate representation. These halvings occur approximately every four years when around 210,000 blocks have been mined, continuing until the total cap of bitcoins is reached.

The ambiguity surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade strategies and the prospects of the worldwide economy might have exerted pressure on Bitcoin’s value, as per analysts from Kaiko. This includes even his directive issued in March to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. was unable to raise the cryptocurrency .

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index A metric representing economic risks averaged 317 during the six months following Bitcoin’s most recent halving, as noted by Kaiko analysts in their report on Tuesday. By contrast, this index stood at around 107 in the half-year period post-2012 halving; approximately 109 in the aftermath of the 2016 halving; and about 186 in the six-month window following the 2020 halving, according to these same analysts' observations.

The reduced performance of Bitcoin during this cycle might partly stem from the growth and maturity of the asset, leading to less extreme fluctuations in its price. According to analysts, Bitcoin’s 60-day price volatility dropped to around 50% on Tuesday from above 200% back in 2012.

“As bitcoin matures, it is now more likely to deliver stable, though potentially more subdued, returns compared to earlier cycles,” the analysts wrote.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization went up 0.6% to $92,136 on Wednesday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It is still 15.6% away from its record high at $109,225, reached on Jan. 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration to a second term in the White House.

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